Harry’s Knesset Predictions!

Here is what I think the next Knesset is going to look like. I welcome your comments. No real surprises. The coalition that may result from this might be more interesting than the elections itself.

Likud - 33

As predicted in the polls the Likud party will once again regain their strength and become the largest party.

Labor - 19

Unless Mitzna's last minute plea to former Labor voters worked the Labor party will suffer tremendously. I do think however that Mitnza ran a good campaign. He could have easily faired better as a moderate, but chose not to coat his rhetoric with right wing leanings which gives him respect, but not votes.

Shinui - 14

Shas - 10

The secular revolution will result in an excellent showing for the Shinui party. The next Knesset session will make it or break it for Shinui. People are going to expect results. I think however that they will be left out of the coalition on the sidelines. Shas is a more natural partner for the Likud. They can be controlled. Offer them money and they'll do and believe whatever the Likud says. They will take a hit and lose seats but with ten mandates they cannot be ignored.



Meretz - 7

Meretz will lose three mandates to Shinui.



Yisrael B'Aliyah - 5

All polls show YBA receiving between 3-4 seats. I think that they'll get at least five, perhaps six. There is a large Russian non-Hebrew speaking community who don't understand enough Hebrew to answer polls. I have also read articles that have stated that the Russian community is apprehesive in general to give any information over the phone.


National Union - 8

The right wing block will receive a respectable eight mandates.

Green Leaf - 2

Instead of people voting with a white ballot, they are going to vote for the Green Leaf party. Interesting to see how this plays out.

Arab Lists - 10

Due to a low Arab turnout, all of the combined Arab lists (including Hadash) will receive ten seats.

Am Echad - 3

Amir Peretz's union party who don't seem to have a platform at all, will increase to three seats, possible four. I find this amazing considering Peretz's attendance record is among the lowest of all MKs.


NRP - 4

Effie Eitam, wasn't the savior of the National Religious Party as he was supposed to be. He screwed himself with his absurd idea of resettling the Palestinians in the Sinai Penisula. Thousands abandoned him to the Likud.

United Torah Judaism - 5

UTJ will increase to five seats due to the natural growth of the Haredi community. Their power base will continue to grow in the years to come.

Tags: green leaf party, israel, knesset, knesset elections, labor, likud, Meretz, Shas, shinui